When an subject is controversial, one cannot hope to tell the truth. One can only show how one came to hold whatever opinion one does hold. One can only give one's audience the the chance of drawing their own conclusions as they observe the limitations, the predjudices, the idiosyncracies of the speaker.

- Virginia Woolf

Monday, June 18, 2007

Good article : Global prosperity (or lack thereof)

This article is a great analysis of our current world, although I have a few quick thoughts:

1. I am not entirely convinced that the world can physically support a world where the BRIC countries consume as much as the US and Europe per capita. Serious tech improvements will be necessary, and major conflicts in those emerging countries could easily derail improvements, especially if poor workers revolt in China or the India -Pakistan conflict heats up.

2. The article claims only 50 mil. people will be added to 1st tier countries. This must not be counting immigration (there are a quarter that many Mexicans in the US alone). Not counting immigration in this type of analysis is a major oversight.

3. The author and his world bank friends seem to believe that money is the solution to all of the world's problems. Increasing African aid is not going to do anything unless those african recipients have the infrastructure and institutions to invest and distribute that money. Long story short, giving everyone in Somalia $100 (double the highest per-capita african aid) isn't going to fix anything (it will likely make the problem worse. Also, judging by the past effectiveness of the World Bank, It is clearly not the answer to the said lack of infrastructure.

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